Discussion The Friedman Scenario: The Next 100 Years

The Next 100 Years is a 2009 book by George Friedman, former chairman of STRATFOR. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.

Mere eight years after it was published, many of the events Friedman attempted to predict are seemingly falling into place, with my own personal commentary and opinion on how exactly they happened or may happen.

• Within the next decade the United States will build new regional power balances by creating competing relationships, which offset one another, in the world's different regions.

• A second American Cold War with Russia will occur in the 2010s. - Check. Euromaidan, Crimean annexation, Donbass War, Syria proxy war.
  • Russia will ally with Germany, will make attempts to expand its sphere of influence, and will continue to build up its military to the point where it can pose a challenge to the United States. - While not allied, Russia and Germany have close economic relations, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipe is one of the recent examples of it.
    
  • Around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. - Trump is elected in November 2016, Eastern Europe seems to be following the same course the Trump administriation does in 2017.
    • America will become a close ally of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, who may form a Polish-led military alliance during this period, which Friedman refers to as the "Polish Bloc". - Visegrad Group (V4) countries are in opposition to the EU migrant policies, as well are being led by conservative parties just like the United States are now led by right-wing Donald Trump, which causes a rift between the liberal, cosmopolitan West and conservative, mostly monoethnic East.
  • Around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a Second Cold War. - So far, there are no signs for Russia to have any major instabilities, although it still faces sanctions due to Ukraine Crisis.
  In the near future, we would have the following if Russia and China get unstable:

• By 2020 China will politically and culturally fragment as well.
  • Internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power. - As the Romance of the Three Kingdoms says "The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been." There are no signs of it happening in the near future, though.

• The collapse of central authority in Russia and fragmentation in China will leave Eurasia in general chaos, allowing the secession and annexation of numerous regions.
  • Chechnya and other Muslim regions, as well as the Pacific Basin will secede from Russia - Neo-Ottoman Sphere if Turkey continues on it's current path and the Russian Federation fragments.
    
  • Finland will annex Karelia - They have valid claims on it, so it's plausible.
    
  • Romania will annex Moldova - Ethnically and lingustically similiar, was part of Romania before WW2, but Moldova has pro-Russian tendencies due to being part of the USSR since it's annexation during the war. Nevertheless, Romanian Anschluss is possible if Russia is fragmented.
    
  • Tibet will gain independence with Indian assistance - India's support of Tibetan independence would be a very real possibility if China is destabilized.
    
  • Taiwan will extend its influence into China - Kuomintang making its comeback to the mainland following the breakup of PRC. They recognize themselves as the legitimate government of entire China despite having control of Taiwan only.
    
  • The United States and European nations create regional spheres of influence in China. - Divide and Conquer, possible puppet governments in the fragmented states of China.

• In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia.
  • Turkey will expand its sphere of influence into the Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and into what was once Russia and the former Soviet Union. - Potential Neo-Ottoman Empire, Erdogan seems to be leading Turkey in that direction, and influencing the areas formerly under their control (former Crimean Khanate, the Levant) as well as the Turan and Caucasus would be one of their goals.
  • Japan will expand its influence to Chinese regions and many Pacific Islands. - Possible resurgence of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
    
  • Poland will continue to dominate Eastern Europe through the "Polish Bloc". - Visegrad Group countries will either secede from the European Union, or will become the federation's counterpart to Byzantium/East Roman Empire, mirroring the infamous split of the Roman Empire in 395 AD. Visegrad may expand their membership to Croatia, Romania, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States, leading to the consolidation of Józef Piłsudski's concept of Intermarium that was one of the Polish ambitions during the interwar period as a factual political bloc.

 

very interesting, and i loved the commentary and how you try to be neutral and objective, without forcing things when unnecessary.

however, there's a main lack that jumps into my eyes. All of what i get from this script is based on america and russia getting at the daggers once again, but not only this doesn't seem to be happening (even if you don't go as far as calling trump a putin puppet, the closeness between the two is undeniable, especially compared to obama) but there are a lot of other factors not taken in minimal consideration because they're all relatively recent developments (ISIS, kim jong un, the migrations) that are probably much more game-changing for the current decade.

 

Shooting in Munich.

 

I couldnt read the yellow bits but it was interesting seeing your onion on his predictions