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You've gotta point there, statistically your right but why wait and loose then chance and win/lose. We have more than they do so we can lych faster then they do so in long story short we have the advantage.. and if we don't take it'll be our loss
Ya checking other players is a good Idea but me and Ouki are the most suspicious and lets not loose this chance if am right and Ouki is a Mafia then we just got a huge gain on our side.

 

Of course we have the numbers but that can change pretty quickly.

And if he's not? We will need to make up alota ground

 

Actually, we won't, why because we will have one of our main suspects out. Kira, in my opinion, will be someone we easily look over cause they are most belivable and trustworthy, also very educative. I am not any of these, wait now I sound like I'm trying to blame someone else, but my main point is if we risk this won't have to risk anymore cause one of the most suspicious will be out. Lastly, your right the numbers can change quickly but so can theirs.

 

Just wondering, can Kira kill other Kira's since there's 3 of them in this game?

 

i think they can but they know who the other Kira is so they wouldnt

 

I see lol. Would've been great if they killed each other had they not known.

 

that be awsome! but then not because the Kiras would be afraid of lynching each other

 

Well, I'm actually going to run the maths to make this clear.

We have 16 players. We know that 5 of them aren't Town, so we have 11/2/3.

Assuming worst case scenario:

Town lynch Day 1. 10/2/3.
Kira kill Night 1. 9/2/3
Town lynch Day 2. 8/2/3
Kira kill Night 2. 7/2/3.
Town lynch Day 3. 6/2/3.
Kira kill Night 3. 5/2/3.
Town lynch Day 4. 4/2/3.

Town can no longer win.

Now let's do this, but through No Lynching Day 1.

Town No Lynch Day 1. 11/2/3
Kira kill Night 1. 10/2/3
Town lynch Day 2. 9/2/3 (bear in mind, this lynch is almost certainly weaker as there is less to go off of).
Kira kill Night 2. 8/2/3
Town lynch Day 3. 7/2/3
Kira kill Night 3. 6/2/3
Town lynch Day 4. 5/2/3
Kira kill Night 4. 4/2/3

See? Town don't gain an extra Day Phase before they can no longer win. Town lose majority one phase earlier, but we cannot assume that indies will just side with Mafia. Aside from that, the trade off here losing our lynch Day 1, thus resulting in, most likely, a weaker lynch Day 2, for one extra Night Phase. How does that improve Town's chances. If you want to call the game when Town lose majority, the trade off is replacing a Day 1 lynch, weakening the Day 2 lynch, for an extra lynch at Day 4 where Town are at LyLo. Again, that is hardly a good trade off. Remember that with No Lynch Day 1, we're limited Day 2 as we only have the Night Phase to work off of. That takes away the ability to analyse wagons Day 2, the ability to look into interactions with lynched players Day 2, and overall inhibits our ability to scumhunt. You can say "well, this is just my opinion" but there isn't any advantage to no lynching for the Town here. This isn't something I've just came up with - I've been playing for a little while now and having seen communities where they no lynch day 1 examples of Town not lynching Day 1, this is usually how it goes. It's much harder to analyse kills without falling into WIFOM that it is to analyse voting patterns. Even if you say "oh, it's just one phase", town are still losing majority after 3 lynches. Can someone who is proposing we no lynch tell me what we gain to counter balance what we're losing?

We can try to engage them. Over the Night I'm going to look into inactives, but not lynching here doesn't really mean we'll be better able to do it next day phase. We just don't gain anything worth the trade off. It's a net loss for the Town however you look at it. Town do not gain an extra lynch. At best, at the very best, we exchange one for another lynch further down the line. While doing that, we hurt Day 2 because we're working without a lynch to build off from, so it's not like in terms of information we're improving our lynches. Day 2 ends up playing out a lot like a Day 1. And in the worst case, we're exchanging 3 lynches for two lynches, and a more difficult day 2. I know Day 1 can feel like a shot in the dark, and the likelihood is we wont lynch scum, but the objective of Day 1 isn't just to win the game. It's to give us something to build from, to inform ourselves when we have more information. It's to get behavioural baselines down for players, thoughts, opinions, and discussion. Next Day Phase, no matter who whomever is lynched flips we have stuff to talk about. Next Day Phase, if we don't lynch, what do we have? The no lynching vs lynching discussion again?

 

Also, to add to that, if we don't lynch, say Ougi, today, then we're forcing cops to investigate them (inviting mafia to tamper with those investigations), and the likely case we'll still have a big ? over him come Day 2. So people will gravitate back to that lynch anyway. Except if we do, and he flips town worst case scenario, we're dealing with a day 2 lynch - inherently worse for the town than a day 1 lynch. Don't forget - games are balanced generally assuming that town mislynch day 1. That's why they allow for town to have a set number of mislynches before they lose the game. It's not like a single mislynch will take control of the lynch away from the town.

 

exactly what @Ratchet said
Thats why we need to lynch @Ouki

 

It's a bit late to say in the game, but I'll put my quick thoughts after delaying after some time:

> I have no problems with lynching Ouki. I've seen games where the town chose to abstain and lynch. Plus, it's not like town has no reason to lynch Ouki in particular, his action does warrent a good amount of suspicion. That isn't to say that he's 100% certain to be mafia (which is rare in the first place aside from dead scum), but out of everyone that is active in this game, he would be top in the list. Everything else after that is just a couple of eyebrow raisers and gut feelings. That being said, aside from those who support abstaining this round, I don't see anything out right defend Ouki in particular, probably because either he is town/indie or mafia doesn't wish to associate with him as it becomes more and more likely that Ouki is going to die by the end of this day phase. Of course, just because one wants to abstain this round doesn't necessarily mean that they are in cahoots with Ouki or some shit.

Regardless of the situation, town needs to make up their mind because after looking through the posts, a big chunk of the posts are around the lynching vs no lynching debate.

> For future reference, I'll just put this out there: Serial killers benefit the most when mafia is low in numbers, but alive. If Ouki gets lynched and he's SK, we'll won't have to worry about this, but in case he isn't, the SK would want the mafia to kill alongside with them to dwindle numbers quicker and then have mafia dead before they target the SK. Then, SK would want to take out the remaining townies without being lynched. So for early game, killing mafia wouldn't necessarily be the SK's priority, but they would be in favor of slowing chipping them off and adjusting their actions depending on the situation. This could just be useless information since I don't know if an SK would actually try to do this specific strategy or hell, maybe there isn't an SK and this is dumb shit. (It is a valid possibility though considering the number of players, so balance shouldn't be too much of an issue for the host as far as I know) However, the point is that if Ouki gets lynched (which seems pretty likely at this point), and he flips scum, SK would probably try to kill some random ass townie, perhaps an inactive if they don't give a shit. If not, the SK may try to deliberately target who they think is mafia. That may or may not help in finding the SK's identity. Of course, if only one person dies during the first night phase, the possibility of an SK's existence dwindles significantly since SK would be 1) inactive 2) doesn't exist 3) killing ability is limited or 4) deliberately not kill this night for some convoluted reason. By the second night phase and SK hasn't killed, I think it's somewhat safe to say that SK isn't a threat for the most part.

I know this isn't directly related to the current conversation, but then I remembered that two indies exist and given the Semi-Closed nature of this game, the roles involved are generally traditional for the most part.

I'll post more if I feel I have more to say.

 

Vote Tally

Ouki- 5 Votes : Panda 1 Konobi >> Cow >> Karma >> Serperior >> Ratchet

Panda 1 Konobi- 3 Votes : Amruc Ragazhor >> Sagebee >> Ouki

The rest of players either abstained or did not vote.

11 hours and 28 min left before the DP ends.​

 

Truth I guess

Why specifically him?

 

Didn't want to comment on your math cos it's a discussion that risks derailing the thread.
Essentially worst case scenario is
Town lynch day 1 10/2/3
Kira kill night 1 9/2/3
Independent kill 8/2/3
Kira converts night 1 7/2/4

Town lynch day 2 6/2/4
Kira kills, independent kills 4/2/4

In this scenario towns already f**ucked.
This is an unlikely scenario tho.

And in a game where you can't claim losing your investigative roles means you are playing blind, except ofc team Kira goofs.

 

This is the post where I stated my opinion

I said his post gave me scummy vibes, scummy vibes aren't enough reason to vote.